方恩格專欄》外交「突破」只是內宣的工具
蕭美琴現身IPAC峰會發表演說，引發熱議。（圖／美聯社）
副總統蕭美琴於11月7日在「對中政策跨國議會聯盟」（IPAC）發表的演說，將永遠被視爲臺灣外交上的重大成就。臺灣許多人稱之爲「突破」，甚至有人稱之爲「大突破」。
但近期臺灣總統或副總統的海外出訪，或外國政治人物（非國會議員）的高層訪臺，告訴了我們一個重要的教訓，這些訪問往往不會被再次複製，或需要多年後纔會再度發生。以下將討論過去十年間的幾個例子。
一、2015年，馬英九兩度訪新加坡。首次是在3月李光耀過世後前往弔唁；第二次是在11月與習近平會面。
那麼馬總統兩次訪星之後，發生了什麼？臺灣總統或副總統其後並未因此建立造訪或過境新加坡的先例。
至於新加坡政治人物訪臺方面，在2024年成爲總理之前，黃循財從未訪臺。其前任李顯龍曾於2004年在出任總理前訪臺，儘管新加坡政府強調那是非正式行程。
近期，僑委會委員長徐佳青公開承認，新加坡政府拒絕讓她前往新加坡參加「亞洲臺灣商會聯合總會」的活動。因此，2015年馬英九兩度訪星這項「突破」，對臺星關係的長期影響十分有限。
二、2020年8月，時任美國衛生部長阿札爾訪臺並與蔡英文總統會面。這是美國內閣部長罕見的訪臺，但近數十年內並非第一次。6年前、2014年歐巴馬政府期間，環保署長麥卡錫曾訪臺並與馬英九會面；而2000 年柯林頓政府期間，運輸部長斯雷特也曾訪臺並會見陳水扁。
那麼阿札爾訪臺後發生了什麼？在拜登政府的4年任內，沒有任何內閣部長訪臺。在第二任川普政府目前階段，也沒有內閣部長訪臺，儘管在2025年9月有美國農業部貿易及對外農業事務次長訪臺並與賴清德總統會面。
三、2022年7月，日本前首相安倍晉三遭刺殺，當時的副總統賴清德訪問日本，並前往位於東京的安倍府邸弔唁其家屬。臺灣政府強調這是一趟「私人行程」。
那麼賴副總統訪日後發生了什麼？與新加坡類似，臺灣總統或副總統之後並無其他訪日（或過境日本）的行程。3年後的2025年7月，外交部長林佳龍訪問日本；但沒有公開報導指出他與日本內閣部長會面，而且臺灣政府同樣強調此行是私人訪問。然而林佳龍確實與多名日本國會議員會面，且議員們在社羣媒體上公開了照片。
四、2022年8月，美國衆議院議長裴洛西訪臺於臺灣停留約19小時。這被視爲突破，因爲上一次議長訪臺已是1997年的金瑞契，當時僅停留約3小時。裴洛西的後任議長麥卡錫並未訪臺，即使他被視爲「對中鷹派」，外界也曾期待他能延續裴洛西的先例。相反地，他於2023年4月與過境加州的蔡英文會面。迄今爲止，2023年10月就任的現任議長強生也沒有訪臺。
爲什麼麥卡錫或強生未跟進裴洛西訪臺？爲什麼強生沒有邀請臺灣的立法院長訪問華府？原因不明。但或許美方不願承擔中國的反應，例如裴洛西訪臺後於 2022 年 8 月中國所進行的大規模軍演。
五、2023年3月，德國教育及研究部長史塔克－瓦特辛格（Bettina Stark-Watzinger）訪臺。前一次德國部長訪臺是1997年，因此這也被視爲突破。儘管德國部長罕見訪臺，但臺灣部長訪德在過去多年則偶有發生。訪臺期間，史塔克－瓦特辛格簽署了「臺德科技合作協議」、與國科會主委會面，並與教育部長會晤。然而她只在臺灣停留一晚，並未會見蔡英文總統。
2023年8月，臺積電宣佈將在德國設廠，因此對德國而言，史塔克－瓦特辛格的訪臺確實產生了實質效果。
之後，並無其他德國部長訪臺；不過2025年11月前總統蔡英文曾訪問德國。
從上述例子可以看出，臺灣不時會迎來外交突破。每當突破發生時，臺灣的新聞媒體、政論節目評論員、外交部以及立委往往會迅速宣稱臺灣取得了重大外交成就。然而，這些例子也告訴我們另一個重要的教訓：突破非常難以延續，往往只是一次性的事件。可能需要許多年，與該國纔會出現第二次類似的突破。
還有另一點值得注意，總統賴清德與副總統蕭美琴都是非常聰明的政治人物，而賴總統同時也是民進黨主席。他們都很清楚，蕭副總統此次赴比利時並在IPAC的演說，可能難以在短期內「複製」。因此，蕭副總統在IPAC的演說將很快被用作重要工具，來協助民進黨在2026年11月的地方選舉，以及2028年1月的總統與立委選舉中獲得成功。即便是地方選舉，也會圍繞「抗中保臺」這一主題，2028年的大選肯定也是如此。
總而言之，成功的外交，對臺灣而言，就是良好的國內政治！（作者爲全球美國僑會臺灣代表處主任）
Taiwan’s Diplomatic Breakthroughs are Good Domestic Politics
By Ross Darrell Feingold
Former Asia Chairman, Republicans Abroad
X: @RossFeingold
Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim’s speech on November 7 to the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) will forever be considered a major achievement in Taiwan’s foreign relations. Many in Taiwan refer to it as a “breakthrough”, and some even refer to it as a “big breakthrough”.
But recent overseas trips by Taiwan’s president or vice president, or high level visits to Taiwan by foreign politicians (other than members of parliaments), teach us an important lesson. Often these visits are not repeated, or take many years to be repeated.
A few examples from the past ten years are discussed below.
1. In 2015, President Ma Ying-jeou visited Singapore two times. The first time was to pay respects after Lee Kuan Yew died in March 2015, and the second time was for the meeting with Xi Jinping in November 2015.
What happened after President Ma’s two visits to Singapore?
No precedent was set for future visits to (or transit stops in) Singapore by Taiwan’s president or vice president.
As for Singapore politicians visits to Taiwan, prior to becoming prime minister in 2024, Lawrence Wong did not visit Taiwan. Lawrence Wong’s predecessor, Lee Hsien Loong, visited Taiwan in 2004 prior to becoming prime minister even though the Singapore government emphasized that it was an unofficial visit.
Recently, Minister of the Overseas Community Affairs Council Hsu Chia-ching publicly admitted that the Singapore government has refused to allow her to visit Singapore to attend an event held by the Asia Taiwanese Chambers of Commerce.
Thus, the “breakthrough” in 2015 when President Ma visited Singapore two times has had little long term impact on Singapore - Taiwan relations.
2. In August 2020, United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar visited Taiwan and met President Tsai Ing-wen. This was a rare visit to Taiwan by a United States cabinet member. However, it was not unprecedented in recent decades. Six years earlier, in 2014 the Environmental Protection Agency Administration Administrator Gina McCarthy visited Taiwan during President Barrack Obama’s administration and met President Ma Ying-jeou, and in 2000 the Secretary of Transportation Rodney Slater visited Taiwan during President Bill Clinton’s administration and met President Chen Shui-bian.
What happened after Azar’s visit to Taiwan? During the four years of the President Joe Biden administration, no cabinet secretary visited Taiwan.
So far in the second President Donald Trump administration, no cabinet secretary has visited Taiwan either, though in September 2025 the United States Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs visited Taiwan and met with President William Lai.
3. In July 2022 following the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, then Vice President William Lai visited Japan and went to the Abe family home in Tokyo to pay his respects to Abe’s family. The Taiwan government emphasized that it was a “private trip”.
What happened after Vice President Lai’s visit to Japan? Similar to with Singapore, there are no subsequent visits (or transit tops) in Japan by Taiwan’s president or vice-president. Three years later, in July 2025, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung visited Japan. However, there were no public reports that Foreign Minister Lin met any Japan cabinet ministers, and the Taiwan government emphasized that the trip was “private”. However, Foreign Minister Lin did meet with members of parliament, who shared photos on social media.
4. In August 2022, the United States House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan for approximately 19 hours. This was considered a breakthrough because the previous visit by a House Speaker, New Gingrich, occurred in 1997 and he only visited Taiwan for approximately three hours.
Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy, did not visit Taiwan, even though he is a “China hawk” and it was hoped that he would follow the precedent set by Pelosi. Instead, McCarthy met with President Tsai when she made a transit stop in California in April 2023.
So far, McCarthy’s successor, Mike Johnson, who took office in October 2023, has not visited Taiwan.
Why didn’t McCarthy or Johnson follow the precedent set by Pelosi and visit Taiwan? Why hasn’t Johnson invited Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan Speaker to visit Washington DC? It is unknown, but perhaps the Americans do not want to be responsible for China’s reaction such as another large military exercise like what China did in August 2022 after Pelosi visited Taiwan.
5. In March 2023, Germany's Minister for Education and Research Bettina Stark-Watzinger visited Taiwan. The prior visit to Taiwan by a German minister was in 1997, so, this was also considered a breakthrough. Even though Germany’s cabinet ministers rarely visit Taiwan, visits to Germany by Taiwan cabinet ministers have periodically occurred for many years.
During the visit to Taiwan, Bettina Stark-Watzinger signed a Taiwan - Germany Scientific and Technological Cooperation Arrangement, met with the Minister of the National Science and Technology Council, and met with the Education Minister. However, Bettina Stark-Watzinger only stayed in Taiwan one night, and did not meet with President Tsai.
In August 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. announced it would build a fab in Germany,, so, at least for Germany, the visit to Taiwan by Bettina Stark-Watzinger had a very practical outcome.
Afterwards, a Germany cabinet minister has not again visited Taiwan, though in November 2025 former President Tsai visited Germany.
From the above examples, we know that periodically there are diplomatic breakthroughs for Taiwan. When these breakthroughs occur, many people in Taiwan, such as certain news media outlets, commentators on television political talk shows, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and members of the Legislative Yuan are quick to proclaim a major breakthrough for Taiwan has occurred.
However, the above examples also tell us another important lesson. It is very difficult to sustain a breakthrough, and in fact, often what appears to be a breakthrough, might be a “one time” event. It can be many years until there is a second, similar breakthrough with the country with whom the breakthrough occurs.
There is another lesson to keep in mind. President Lai, and Vice President Hsiao, are very smart people, and President Lai is chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. They both know that it might be difficult to “repeat” the breakthrough of Vice President Hsiao’s visit to Belgium and speech to IPAC.
Thus, Vice President Hsiao’s speech to IPAC will soon have a significant use, as a tool help the Democratic Progressive Party achieve electoral success in the local elections to be held in November 2026, and the presidential and Legislative Yuan election to be held in January 2028. Even a local election will be about “opposing China and protecting Taiwan”, and certainly the election in 2028 will be about this.
Ultimately, successful diplomacy for Taiwan is a good tool for domestic politics!